Will the road to the Kentucky Derby go through the Grade III, $400,000 ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby, as it did for Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010?
Or has the Kentucky Derby winner already been here this winter, perhaps in the imposing presence of Renegade, the dominant winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes here on Feb. 7?
Partial answers may be forthcoming on Saturday, March 7 when Tampa Bay Downs plays host to Festival Day 46, a collection of five stakes races – four of them graded – with the 46th edition of the mile-and-a-sixteenth ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby for 3-year-olds on the dirt the main event.
The winner of the Oldsmar showcase will receive 50 points toward qualifying for the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2. The next four finishers receive 25, 15, 10 and 5 points.
The ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby closed last weekend with 38 nominations including Renegade, one of six from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who has won the race a record six times. Other top trainers with multiple nominations include Brad Cox and Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., with four apiece and Chad Brown with three.
An amazing gathering of equines will be on hand for the other races. The 28th running of the Grade II, $225,000 Hillsborough Stakes, a mile-and-an-eighth race on the turf for fillies and mares 4-years-old-and-upward, has attracted 26 nominations. Three-year-olds fillies will be in the spotlight in the 43rd edition of the Grade III, $200,000 Florida Oaks at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the grass, with 39 nominated.
The fourth graded stakes on the Festival Day 46 card is the 35th running of the Grade III, $125,000 Michelob Ultra Challenger at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the dirt for older horses. Skippylongstocking has won the last three runnings of the race but was not nominated by Joseph this year – understandable after his career-defining victory on Jan. 24 at Gulfstream Park in the Grade I Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes.
The Michelob Ultra Challenger has drawn 31 nominations.
Festival Day 46’s other stakes race is the 20th running of the $125,000 Columbia Stakes, a 1-mile turf contest for 3-year-olds. There are 32 nominations.
The ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby will attract the lion’s share of media attention, with leading 3-year-olds dominating the Thoroughbred racing stage from now until the first Saturday in May. And at this early point, a lot of experts look at the stables of trainers with experience in major races.
So why not start with Pletcher, who in addition to Renegade has nominated Nearly, the Florida-bred winner of the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream, and Jackson Hole, an impressive conditional allowance winner on Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds.
The best of Cox’s four nominees could be Further Ado, who is unraced since winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby distance on Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs. Among Cox’s other nominations is Confessional, who finished a mystifying seventh in the Sam F. Davis.
Joseph’s quartet of nominations includes Solitude Dude, who won the Inaugural Stakes here on Dec. 6 by 8 lengths and captured the Swale Stakes on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream to improve to 3-for-3. He has yet to race at a distance beyond one turn.
Brown, who won the Tampa Bay Derby in 2024 with Domestic Product, has nominated another promising colt from owner Klaravich Stables: Emerging Market, who broke his maiden on the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis undercard.
The second and third-place finishers in the Sam F. Davis are nominated: Florida-bred Wayne’s Law, trained by Amador Merei Sanchez, and The Puma, from the barn of Gustavo Delgado.
Here are the links to the nominations and past performances for the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby:
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-TAM-20260307-598350
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-TAM-20260307-598350
The Hillsborough Stakes nominations list boasts an outstanding group of older fillies and mares. The list includes the first three finishers in the Grade III Endeavour Stakes here on Jan. 31: the winner, 6-year-old mare Aussie Girl, trained by Will Walden; the runner-up, 4-year-old Candy Quest, trained by Mark Casse; and third-place finisher Scythian, from the barn of Bill Mott.
Brown, who has won the race’s last two runnings, has three nominations, headed by 5-year-old Grade III winner Whiskey Decision. Cox has nominated 4-year-old Fionn, a Grade I winner of more than $2-million who is 7-for-11 lifetime.
Here are the links to the nominations and past performances for the Hillsborough Stakes:
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-TAM-20260307-598347
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-TAM-20260307-598347
The Florida Oaks, which produced two Kentucky Oaks winners years ago when the race was held on the main Oldsmar track – Luv Me Luv Me Not in 1992 and Secret Status in 2000 – features a nominations list long on promise, with only nine of the 39 showing more than four starts.
Time to Dream, owned by Repole Stable and trained by Pletcher, is a stakes winner who finished third last fall in the Grade II Jessamine Stakes presented by Keeneland Sales at Keeneland. Brown has nominated Just Aloof, who won the Grade III Jimmy Durante Stakes on Nov. 29 at Del Mar for owner Whisper Hill Farm. Scratch It, from the barn of Cox, is a Grade III-placed filly who broke her maiden in August at Saratoga going a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the grass in her career debut.
Here are the links to the nominations and past performances for the Florida Oaks:
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-TAM-20260307-598363
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-TAM-20260307-598363
The nominations for the Michelob Ultra Challenger include trainer Joseph’s 7-year-old White Abarrio, second to stablemate Skippylongstocking in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational. White Abarrio has earned more than $7.7-million in a career highlighted by victories in the 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic and the 2025 Pegasus.
Juddmonte’s 4-year-old colt Disco Time, trained by Cox, is another Michelob Ultra Challenger nomination of high renown. He was 5-for-5 with an average winning margin of about 4 ½ lengths before finishing eighth in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational.
Here are the links to the nominations and past performances for the Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes:
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-TAM-20260307-598362
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-TAM-20260307-598362
Grade I winner Argos, who captured the bet365 Summer Stakes last September at Woodbine, is among a talented group of noms for the Columbia Stakes. He is trained by Riley Mott, the son of Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott, who nominated Noble Dynasty for the Columbia.
Trainer H. Graham Motion has nominated stakes winner Proton and Turf Star, while Miguel Clement has nominated impressive maiden winners Congressional and Navigation.
Here are the links to the nominations and past performances for the Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes:
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SN-TAM-20260307-598360
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-TAM-20260307-598360
