Renegade, who is officially winless in three races due to being disqualified by the stewards and placed second behind Paladin in a maiden special weight race on Oct. 17 at Belmont At The Big A, has been established as the 8-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s $250,000, mile-and-a-sixteenth Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
The son of Into Mischief, bred in Kentucky by Robert Low and Lawana Low, owned by the Lows in partnership with Repole Stable and trained by Todd Pletcher, will break from the No. 6 post in a nine-horse field under jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Two other maidens are entered: The Puma, who finished second in his only career start on Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park for trainer Gustavo Delgado, and Ocelli, who has posted a second and two thirds in three lifetime tries for conditioner Whit Beckman.
The Sam F. Davis is the 11th and final race Saturday, with a scheduled post time of 5:30 p.m. The first race is at 12:10 p.m. The Davis is a “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points race, with 20, 10, 6, 4 and 2 points awarded to the top five finishers toward qualifying for a spot in the Run for the Roses starting gate on May 2.
The second morning-line choice at 2-1 is Confessional, a son of Essential Quality owned by Steve Landers Racing, LLC and trained by Brad Cox, who won last year’s Sam F. Davis with John Hancock. Confessional breaks from the No. 1 post and will be ridden by Flavien Prat, who rode John Hancock in 2025.
Here is the full field for the Sam F. Davis Stakes in post position order, with horse, jockey, trainer and morning-line odds:
- Confessional, Flavien Prat, Brad Cox, 2-1; 2. Epic Desire, Samy Camacho, Todd Pletcher, 15-1; 3. The Puma, Javier Castellano, Gustavo Delgado, 6-1; 4. Game for It, Luis R. Rivera, Jr., 20-1; 5. Ocelli, Joseph D. Ramos, Whit Beckman, 12-1; 6. Renegade, Irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher, 8-5; 7. Wayne’s Law, Marcos Meneses, Amador Sanchez, 30-1; 8. Max Capacity, Jevian Toledo, Richard Sillaman, 30-1; 9. Dr. Kapur, Samuel Marin, Saffie A. Joseph, Jr., 5-1.
Pletcher, who has won a record seven runnings of the Sam F. Davis Stakes, has two entrants in Renegade and longshot Epic Desire. He considers the race on the sand-based Oldsmar surface an ideal place to get a horse’s 3-year-old campaign rolling. “I like the timing (of the race) and the (two-turn) distance,” he said in a text message.
Three other stakes races are on tap on the Festival Preview Day card. The fifth race on the card, the $125,000, mile-and-40-yard Suncoast Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, shapes up on paper as a showdown between Pletcher’s unbeaten (2-for-2) Grade II winner Zany and Cox’s Life of Joy, herself a stakes winner.
Zany, a daughter of American Pharoah owned by Repole Stable, will be ridden by Ortiz and break from the No. 3 post in the eight-horse field. She is 2-5 on the morning line, meaning bettors who wager $2 on her to win will profit to the tune of 80 cents (if she wins). That’s a ticket many in the crowd might elect to hold onto, on the chance she turns out to be super-special.
While it is too early to start comparing Zany to Pletcher’s 2022 Suncoast Stakes winner Nest, who won an Eclipse Award that year as Champion 3-Year-Old Filly, Pletcher is high on Zany’s future. “Zany has trained very well,” he said. “We’re optimistic she can be competitive in some of the same races as Nest.”
Life of Joy, a daughter of Gun Runner owned by Will Stroud, Andrew Farm, Mountmellick Farm and For the People Racing Stable, LLC, will break from the No. 5 post under Prat. She is 2-1 on the morning line.
The Suncoast is a “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” prep race, with 20, 10, 6, 4 and 2 qualifying points awarded to the top five finishers toward qualifying for the Longines Kentucky Oaks on May 1.
Although Ortiz and Prat appear to be aboard the top two in each 3-year-old race, Thoroughbreds mature at different rates and a longshot (or two) could be prepared for a career-best performance that will take them to the winner’s circle. That’s why they run the races.
Some observers believe older horses are generally more consistent, which may bode well for trainer Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.’s 5-year-old Florida-bred mare Mystic Lake in Saturday’s fourth race, the $125,000, 6-furlong Minaret Stakes for older fillies and mares. The morning-line, even-money favorite, she will break from the No. 1 post under Prat.
Mystic Lake, who is owned by Miller Racing, LLC, BAG Racing Stables, LLC and Stefania Farms, LLC, is 11-for-21 in her career with earnings in excess of $1.46-million. She is a three-time graded-stakes winner who is 2-for-2 at Tampa Bay Downs.
And yet. … Mystic Lake finished third in her most recent start, the Dec. 20 Sugar Swirl Stakes, won by 6-year-old Ms. Bucchero. That Florida-bred, who is owned and trained by Diane Morici, is 10-for-19 lifetime, and although she has never run in a graded stakes, Ms. Bucchero’s best might be enough to pull off a 2-1 “upset” in the six-horse field.
The remaining stakes is the $125,000 Pelican for older horses sprinting 6 furlongs, to be contested as the 10th race. The 3-1 morning-line favorite is 7-year-old gelding Concrete Glory, owned by Big Frank Stable and trained by Joseph. Ortiz will be aboard from the No. 3 post. Concrete Glory is a throwback type of horse, with 17 victories from 40 starts. He has competed at 14 tracks (he finished eighth here in the 2021 Inaugural Stakes).
Second choice at 7-2 is trainer George “Rusty” Arnold, II’s Track Mate, a 6-year-old horse owned by Calumet Farm. He will break from the No. 5 post under Prat. Arnold began today’s racing with 1,998 career victories.
Others with good shots in the Pelican include Victoria’s Ranch’s 6-year-old gelding Silver Slugger, trained by Juan Carlos Avila and to be ridden by Sonny Leon; Wound Up, a 6-year-old gelding trained by Jose Francisco D’Angelo and to be ridden by Samuel Marin; and three horses from the barn of trainer Gerald Bennett, all Florida-breds – 6-year-old gelding Chrome Ghost, 5-year-old gelding EL Principito and 4-year-old colt Naughty Rascal.
The two other entrants on what appears to be the most wide-open stakes on the card are 4-year-old colt Rolando, trained by Fausto Gutierrez, and Beach Colt, a 7-year-old gelding from the barn of Amador Sanchez.
